Skip to main content

WHAT TO READ IN THE KZN OUTCOME : MY TAKE

        It is clear that a new centre of politics has emerged in KZN. This centre will undoubtedly redefine the substrates at both the Policy and Electoral Conferences of the ANC starting next week. The singing about Jacob Zuma at the KZN conference has made it clear, and unequivocally so, that how Zuma was treated, correctly or otherwise, is a serious provincial grievance. 

The seems to be a message that the province was profiled through his person not to emerge. The realities of leadership transition in the province, manifesting as the disappearing into old age of Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi, the death of iSilo King Goodwill Zwelithini, and the recall of Jacob Zuma, have propelled a need to be inward-looking in that province. How these regional challenges impact the governing ANC is a subject for another day.


What this rendition submits is,


  1. The RET forces betted on Nomusa, and she lost badly.
  2. Sandile Zungu read the signs and opted not to have his perceived KZN political support quantified, and declined the nomination. This meant he remains in the complex but might not necessarily be in the centre. A Patrice option to get into SAFA might be hygienic.
  3. Nhlanhla Ngidi, known in certain KZN circles to be President Zuma's preference, was a no-show. 
  4. There was a 'section' that called themselves the ANKOLES, they also failed to tip the scales. 
  5. The Taliban, who in the build-up to NASREC and beyond were known to be Thuma Minas, potentially until the Zuma detention without trial, or with a trial in your absence, emerged as the new political centre. 
  6. The numbers of the Taliban, which are on average 60% of provincial support, indicate that towards the National Conference, the KZN will be a complex vote to consolidate around one candidate.
  7. The configurations that could not emerge are just wet ingredients to be mixed into new coalitions towards December 2022.
  8. What should be clear is that the Taliban are not RET, they are not Thuma Mina, and neither are they Ankole. They are in fact a centre that can accommodate all as the build-up to the National Conference intensifies.
  9. It will be the resolutions they take to the Policy Conference and their leadership posture on Step Aside, and generally their pronouncements of economic policy, anti-corruption, energy policy, and reconstruction and development that will give cues on how they will coalesce in December.
  10. There is however the risk of being vulnerable to new the new tradition of delegate buying at conferences. But to date, they are a centre to look at.
  11. In contrast or comparable to other provinces, they might blend well with the Gauteng posture that has yet to show its hand on Ramaphosa's second term. 
  12. Limpopo has 'erroneously' pronounced on Ramaphosa. The intricacies of VBS and other step-aside issues impacting key individuals in the Province might spawn new configurations for the December Conference 
  13. The Eastern Cape is a flurry space, the numbers that Mabuyane could not muster are an inherent risk to his influence at the December Conference. Mabuyane still has to navigate the investigation report lying at the NPA. The bubblings in the Province indicate a fragility in its capacity to lead any coalition for its declared preference for the President to get a second term. I guess the EMPTY COFFINS were symbolic of the political corpses yet to die and be buried in December 2022.
  14. Mpumalanga is as complex as the silence of DD Mabuza. The Mpumalanga vote is still a mystery. The factions in Mpumalanga are best understood through the prism of its regions. Whilst the current chair was confirmed, his call for a second term for the President has generated discontent, currently still in hush tones.
  15. The North West is yet to have its Conference. History is on the side of what might be called 'RET', in the absence of a distinct identity. The many candidates whose names are bandied about will have to come with a miracle to prevail over the historical winners of the Provincial Conference. North West might, in regional coalition building terms, bolster the old Transvaal Provinces to muster sufficient influence to either raise a new leader or retain Ramaphosa. 
  16. In all this vortex of contestations for the soul, and quite frankly, what interests, nationally, globally or otherwise, ultimately CAPTURE the new leadership of the ANC, there is the snowballing of the PhalaPhala case into a cloud over President Ramaphosa, unless until it is cleared. The potential influence that this case has on succession politics of the ANC spawns various permutations, a subject for another rendition. 

🤷🏿‍♂️Hi sweswe ke, ndzo contributa shem!!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The revolution can't breathe; it is incomplete.

Only some political revolutions get to be completed. Because all revolutions end up with a settlement by elites and incumbents, they have become an outcome of historical moment-defined interests and less about the actual revolution. This settlement often involves a power-sharing agreement among the ruling elites and the incumbent government, which may not fully address the revolutionary goals. When the new power relations change, the new shape they take almost always comes with new challenges. As the quest for political power surpasses that of pursuing social and economic justice, alliances formed on the principles of a national revolution suffocate.    The ANC-led tripartite alliance's National Democratic Revolution is incomplete. The transfer of the totality of the power it sought to achieve still needs to be completed. While political power is arguably transferred, the checks and balances which the settlement has entrenched in the constitutional order have made the transfer...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Ngcaweni and Mathebula conversation. On criticism as Love and disagreeing respectfully.

Busani Ngcaweni wrote about criticism and Love as a rendition to comrades and Comrades. His rendition triggered a rejoinder amplification of its validity by introducing  a dimension of disagreeing respectfully. This is a developing conversation and could trigger other rejoinders. The decision to think about issues is an event. Thinking is a process in a continuum of idea generation. Enjoy our first grins and bites; see our teeth. Busani Ngcaweni writes,   I have realised that criticism is neither hatred, dislike, embarrassment, nor disapproval. Instead, it is an expression of Love, hope, and elevated expectation—hope that others can surpass our own limitations and expectation that humanity might achieve greater heights through others.   It is often through others that we project what we aspire to refine and overcome. When I criticise you, I do not declare my superiority but believe you can exceed my efforts and improve.   Thus, when we engage in critici...
Post a Comment
Read more

The ANC succession era begins.

  The journey towards the 16th of December 2027 ANC National Elective Conference begins in December 2024 at the four influential regions of Limpopo Province. With a 74% outcome at the 2024 National and Provincial elections, which might have arguably saved the ANC from garnering the 40% saving grace outcome, Limpopo is poised to dictate the cadence of who ultimately succeeds Cyril Ramaphosa, the outgoing ANC President.  The ANC faces one of its existential resilience-defining sub-national conferences since announcing its inarguably illusive and ambitious renewal programme. Never has it faced a conference with weakened national voter support, an emboldened opposition complex that now has a potential alternative to itself in the MK Party-led progressive caucus and an ascending substrate of the liberal order defending influential leaders within its ranks. The ideological contest between the left and right within the ANC threatens the disintegration of its electora...
Post a Comment
Read more