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Showing posts from January, 2025

The National Dialogue: What Does It Hold?

Published in TimesLive of 15 January 2025 At his Reconciliation Day speech on 16 December 2024, President Ramaphosa announced that the National Dialogue would be held in 2025. He would appoint a panel of eminent persons and a steering committee to facilitate its realisation. In its annual 08 January 2025 Statement, the ANC NEC included the National Dialogue among the programs it will engage in during the year. It submits that the central purpose of the National Dialogue is to create an inclusive and transparent process to shape a new socio-political consensus. According to the ANC NEC statement, "the National Dialogue offers a comprehensive platform for all citizens, 'we the people', to be part of the political process and reclaim agency to ensure that 'we the people’ are our own liberators". It directs its members that "the National Dialogue will create an opportunity to discuss and find solutions to the difficult issues of economic exclusion, social inequal...

The surfacing succession battle might signal the ANC's end.

This was published in  TimesLive  on 22 January 2025 The January 2025 NEC's intense discussions about the election performance and related matters in KZN and Gauteng unofficially mark the beginning of the ANC succession battle journey towards December 2027. The consequential 2026 local government elections, which should be the preoccupation of any imaginable NEC meeting, do not appear to have enjoyed the attention the disbandment or reconfiguration of the two provinces got. The magic question is why the two provinces, when the election outcomes were a consequence of the nationwide performance of the liberation movement.  The post-1994 ANC established an unofficial convention that the deputy president becomes its president unless the DP opts out, as former DP David Mabuza did. This invariably made the succession contest more about the deputy of the next in line than for the presidency. The break from convention might be why the NDZ17 and NDZ22 failed despite the matur...

Decoding the SACP go-it-alone decision: Just thinking aloud.

In less than 24 months, the ANC and the Tripartite Alliance, a historical coalition that shaped the theoretical dimensions of the anti-colonial and anti-apartheid struggle, had transitioned from a dominant force to the brink of a monumental crisis. The significant loss of 68 seats in Parliament, reducing their performance from 57% to 40%, signalled a corresponding reduction in their deployment to state power quotas. The erosion had already begun in local government since 2016, leaving the career aspirations of alliance leaders up in smoke.    As the challenging times of 2016, 2019, 2021, and particularly 2024 brought about livelihood crises sooner and more intensely than anticipated, the calls for reconfiguring the alliance, including the SACP's decision to operate independently, grew louder. The alliance's shape and decision-making structure evolved in line with the loss of political power in all government spheres since 2016. The labour component of the alliance, which e...

Has the ANC underrated Jacob Zuma, as its denominator?

Published in TimesLive of 09 January 2025 In recent history, it was unimaginable to think of a movement that has lost as much influence in as short a time as the African National Congress. Until May 2024, it was arguably the nexus of RSA political life. Yet, in months, the edifice of ANC influence has been subsumed into the GNU. The ANC has become weaker and teetering on the brink of unprecedented vulnerability in the last three decades. Its claim to fame, occasioned by its monumental policy documents that have become the DNA of RSA's constitutional and democratic order, has been bequeathed to us, the people, without it being replaced in ANC-specific terms.  This has rendered the ANC program deficient; hence, it has been hopping from RDP to Gear to AsgiSA and, lately, the National Development Plan framework. The vortex included many other neo-false starts, such as BEE in all its iterations, Black Industrialist Programs, and others. The GNU statement of intent could become another o...

The prerogative state might be in charge of RSA; it is the degree we don't know.

Published in the Sunday Times 05 January 2025 With the proliferation of illegal mining, unregulated street vendors, unregistered doorstep retail outlets, and other signs of functional decay, the urgency of the situation in South Africa cannot be overstated. The continued disregard for laws and systems paints a picture of a country growing more dangerous by the day, with grave implications for the stability of the constitutional and democratic order. Immediate action is needed to restore order and prevent further decay.  Given the distressing reality, the conclusion that South Africa might have a condition of a dual state is not far-fetched. One state is documented citizens, and the other is those who came to RSA, living, trading, and enjoying public service benefits without anyone knowing who they are. They do not officially have any record of being in the country. This makes RSA effectively have a state which effectively runs through the dictates of a democracy operating within th...

Bottoming up might not catch up with runaway discontent.

  A new political majority might be in the making in South Africa . Eventually, the character of the majority rule we envisaged will inevitably not last longer and might face a tragic end. The runaway discontent of the last three decades' political majority is now an existential risk to the anti-apartheid struggle slogan of black majority rule.  The experiment of surrendering the souls of sworn adversaries, the ANC and DA , for national unity signifies that new political majorities are about to emerge. Viewed through the historical prism of 2016, 2019, 2021, and finally, 2024, this confirms that even the least expected-to-end order tends to expire in a prolonged deterioration. They do not just happen.    History, ideology, dogma, and nostalgia are giving way to the interests of politicians as individuals, their political parties, and economic establishments. The era of post-liberation euphoria politics is over. Any efforts to stem the tide must recognise tha...

The Ngcaweni and Mathebula conversation. On criticism as Love and disagreeing respectfully.

Busani Ngcaweni wrote about criticism and Love as a rendition to comrades and Comrades. His rendition triggered a rejoinder amplification of its validity by introducing  a dimension of disagreeing respectfully. This is a developing conversation and could trigger other rejoinders. The decision to think about issues is an event. Thinking is a process in a continuum of idea generation. Enjoy our first grins and bites; see our teeth. Busani Ngcaweni writes,   I have realised that criticism is neither hatred, dislike, embarrassment, nor disapproval. Instead, it is an expression of Love, hope, and elevated expectation—hope that others can surpass our own limitations and expectation that humanity might achieve greater heights through others.   It is often through others that we project what we aspire to refine and overcome. When I criticise you, I do not declare my superiority but believe you can exceed my efforts and improve.   Thus, when we engage in critici...