Eish, the succession battle is with us again.

Published in TimesLife 08 October 2025

The succession debate in the ANC has not officially opened but is raging. It requires no rocket scientist to see that the Deputy President is nowhere near a point where he can be declared uncontested, despite the advantage of established convention. Notwithstanding that being the President of the Republic, as the prize of being ANC President, is no longer as guaranteed, a faith-based contest has begun. 

There are two December 16 dates to go through before the next ANC elective conference. There is a National General Council, generally seen as the litmus test of where the wind is blowing. Compounding this will be the outcome of the consequential 2026 or 2027 Municipal Elections. Embedded in the 52 Regional Conferences of the ANC is a subtle process of consolidating endorsements by the ANC’s leaders at the centre of the contest. These regional conferences play a crucial role in the succession battle, as they serve as platforms for leaders to garner support and endorsements from influential figures within the party. 

 

What has not emerged in the succession conversations and rituals is what each of the contenders stands for. The last time a contest as fierce as the one unfolding, the challengers to the prize had already come out on what they stood for. 

 

Unlike previous succession battles, the 2027 ANC leadership contest will not be a mere internal affair. The leader who stands to guide the ANC, or any political party with the potential to garner between 15% and 28% of the vote, must appeal to South Africans at large. This shift in focus demands a different track record and criteria for recognition, one that resonates with the broader society and not just the branch delegates at the ANC Conference. 

 

In the parlance of the current ANC Chairperson, there is more to leading the ANC than singing and the ‘dololo capacity’ he decried at the ‘marching orders collection’ imbizo of 15th September 2025. This 'dololo capacity' issue, which refers to the lack of effective leadership and decision-making within the ANC, is a significant challenge that the party is grappling with. Reminiscent of the pre-2021 municipal elections, the pre-2022 ANC Elective Conference, and the pre-2024 national elections, the ANC faces the Madlanga Commission, water security issues, and service delivery protests. 

 

The National Dialogue, which was on the brink of extinction, is now gaining momentum. It is set to provide platforms for new leaders to emerge outside the traditional in-party platforms. Society seems ready to acknowledge and appreciate anyone who has contributed to the now thirty-year-old post-apartheid South Africa. This shift in expectations for leadership introduces new criteria beyond the branches of political parties. 

 

The question is who is raising a hand for branches of the ANC to consider in 2027. 

 

Convention makes Paul Mashatile the leading contender. It might be too early to conclude what he stands for as a South African leader. With the command of the platform he could use, he should by now have already become a standard against which the rest of the contenders are measured. The jury is out on what he has up his sleeves for South Africa and its people. 

 

The discourse on the need for a woman president is gaining traction, positioning Dr Gwen Ramokgopa and Ms Nomvula Mokonyane as contenders. Ms Mokonyane has confirmed her willingness to stand if approached, a standard 'I am available and contesting' statement within the ANC. However, she must now craft a value proposition that extends beyond the ANC branches. Her track record in similar positions will be scrutinised, and her reputation will either enhance or diminish the 40% beyond ANC branches.

 

Dr Gwen Ramokgopa, the current Treasurer-General of the ANC, has a credentialed gravitas that has not spewed ‘smallernyana’ skeletons thus far. She should equally know that her track record is being dusted for billboard display. If the ANC could be given a chance, her previous record of delivery would inform the 40% and those who abstained. Unfortunately, the ANC brand has become a tag-along, highly dependent on who it is tagging along with. 

 

Outside the Top 7 ANC leaders, there is evidence of green shoots with impeccable track records. If leading South Africa is the predominant criterion for selection, the pool within the ANC is broad enough. Buzzing names include Jeff Radebe, the cool and calm policy head of the ANC who served under all ANC Presidents post-1994. There is Patrice Motsepe, who is a bandied about name. The less said about his track record, the better. 

Murmurings of past ANC leaders in the private sector, testing the waters, are abound. Mcebisi Jonas has his hand raised by sections of the ANC. In generational terms, Fikile Mbalula, arguably the most senior ANC member from his generation, is reluctantly raising his hand. He is caught between standing for the ANC presidency and taking the assignment history bestowed on him to rebuild the ANC. Only his various intelligences will be the final arbiter. 

The complexity of the succession is how it foregrounds provincial talent and ambition. With Ramaphosa on his way out, Gwede Mantashe not indicating any appetite to return, and three of the top seven openly eyeing the presidency, the ANC is technically in search of five people to fill its top seven. If Mbalula joins, the number will be a whopping six.