The edited version was published in TimesLive on 26th October 2025
The African National
Congress is in a phase of renewal and rediscovery, grappling with its ongoing
political issues, particularly the integrity of its influential leaders. Over
the past decade, very few of its top six, and later seven, leaders at all
levels of the organisation have avoided allegations of misconduct. However,
this crisis also presents an opportunity for significant change and renewal
within the party.
The crisis has become so
severe that the ANC has had to dismiss a secretary general due to a formal
charge of malfeasance. It also had a former president arrested, rightly or
wrongly, for contempt of court related to a commission of inquiry into the state
of capture in the RSA.
The ANC is engaged in a
significant succession battle with contenders who may have to compete based on
who has the least to answer regarding perceived corruption or malfeasance. If
it exists at all, the succession debate is far from addressing who among the
contenders will confront the substantive issues, indicating a fragile state with
several failed subnational local governments, also known as municipalities.
Without claiming any
wisdom on what prompted SANEF to hold a discussion with Patrice Motsepe on
various questions about the country, the stark truth is that the most
significant of all the questions was whether Motsepe would stand as President
of the ANC, or that of the country.
It is now clear that
being ANC President no longer, or necessarily, guarantees becoming the
President of the country. Despite how important this may be to Motsepe, it
matters little what position Patrice holds within the ANC to be President of
South Africa. All he needs is to be a member of the 8th Parliament, and the
rest depends on the coalitions that form afterwards.
Motsepe did not need to
be SAFA President to be one of Africa’s influential CAF Presidents. He only
needed to be an influential figure in the administration of the football value
chain. In the ANC and the country’s politics, Motsepe commands a ‘straight
walking’ and has accumulated political, social, and investor-trust capital.
In response to the
question about being in the succession race, Motsepe replied, “There are some
good people in the ANC, excellent people...whoever the ANC chooses as
president, I will support, and we will work together to ensure ... this
movement and this broad alliance [are maintained] at all costs.”
For a long time,
Parliament will have the power to appoint the President and Deputy President of
South Africa. The ANC has squandered it. All that Patrice or any other aspirant
President of RSA needs is to be a member of Parliament and have the support of
fifty-one or more of the coalition votes. This might not be difficult for
Patrice to achieve in the first sitting of the 8th Parliament in 2029.
While we are uncertain
whether Motsepe will enter the increasingly less significant contest to become
President of the ANC, we are sure he supports Panyaza Lesufi for the role.
However, we are sure he has not endorsed any other candidates. Should he
reconsider his stance on entering the contest or be ‘called’, the SANEF
conversation drew the line.
Motsepe reaffirmed his
loyalty to the ANC as a member. He used the metaphor of ‘kiss-kiss-madolo’ to
suggest why he might not qualify as a candidate for ANC President. The metaphor
could imply, ‘I have walked so straight in my life that I don’t believe I
qualify to stand,’ for a position that has recently been held by individuals
who do not walk straight. Their knees, whatever that signifies, touch as they
walk.
If Panyaza Lesufi meets
the threshold of ANC branches, including having sufficient funds to incentivise
them, he could serve as a strategic proxy to back the nomination of Patrice
Motsepe as President of South Africa by the 60% plus MPs in the 8th Parliament.
Recent polls project a further decline in ANC support by 2029 if all current
variables remain unchanged.
Under the circumstances,
the ANC is in a state where, as the nexus of political life, it is neither
immutable nor unalterable but can be renewed. Being the President to drive its
NDR-pegged renewal process requires a career revolutionary, rather than a
career politician. Parallel to the career revolutionary would be a functional
state and government. This is where the combination of Panyaza as an ANC renewalist
and Patrice as a stabiliser of the nation underpins the rationale behind his
answers about the ANC Presidency, and not necessarily of the country.
What Patrice did by
removing himself from the ANC succession fray and endorsing who he believes is ‘called’
was to withdraw from a contest that lacks an everyday minimum basis, which
includes the ‘kiss-kiss-madolo’ (not walking straight) criteria. The internal
ANC contest, influenced by a significant step aside decision by the SACP, aims
to reduce the current 40% of votes to an estimated 30% or less. This is not a
contest Patrice Motsepe would likely participate in, given his history of
contests.
If the prize of politics
is government, there are better options for a resourced member of the ANC, such
as Patrice, to become President of South Africa than the route of an otherwise
chronic vote-shedding ANC. Given the unfolding revelations of the Madlanga
Commission, tight on the heels of the yet to start prosecuting Zondo
Commission, it might be a heavy reputational liability for Patrice Motsepe to
use the ANC Presidency ticket for the ultimate prize of RSA politics. Being a
member of Parliament might be the best; that is good enough.
As Lenin wisely put it, “there
are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
Regarding South African politics, especially the ANC succession battles, the
date for its jury to pronounce is 16 December 2027. Until then, there are over a
hundred and four weeks to squeeze in the proverbial Lenin decades; this is a
very long time by any standards.
In the intervening
period, there will be a National General Council, several provincial and
regional elective conferences, the Madlanga Commission testimonies and maybe a
report, potential prosecution and arrest of those fingered in the Zondo
Commission, and the local government elections. These events have the potential
to significantly shape the future of South African politics, making it an
exciting time for political observers.
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