These were the loudest words said to one of South Africa's billionaires, Patrice Motsepe, at the African National Congress's National General Council in Birchwood. Patrice Motsepe was 'recognisably standing' in the 'front row' as the ANC's Secretary General, Fikile Mbalula, was also 'standing' and courting the 'attention' of delegates, some of whom were in an 'attentive interactive conversation' with Mr Motsepe. Behind a 'standing' Mbalula were Deputy President Paul Mashatile, Treasurer Dr Gwen Ramokgopa, and Deputy SG Nomvula Mokonyane, none of whom were 'standing' but seated on the podium reserved for the top seven officials of the ANC.
When
the SG 'asked' a 'standing' Patrice Motsepe to 'sit down', meaning he 'should
not be standing', the literal 'instruction' carried more profound implications than
the physical implications of the statement on the conference floor. The framing
of Mbalula's instruction, conscious or otherwise, generated a context-specific
script or scenario that had not escaped the role of guiding action or
interpretation in the high-stakes circumstances the closing of the NGC was
entering. The race, without set lanes and clearly defined competitors, is
heating up.
It
is no secret that the ANC SG is a contender for the ANC presidency, and his
actions, conduct, and overall posture while in office will, until the 2027 ANC
Elective Conference, be scrutinised through the lens of succession. Equally, it
is known that Patrice Motsepe, who has indicated his unavailability for the
position of ANC President, is under pressure from sections of the ANC to
'stand' and consider the position. Figuratively, they are all 'standing' and courting the delegates' attention.
Analysts agree that Motsepe's entry into the race will be a game-changer, as it will introduce the dynamic of an outside-the-ANC-NEC member contesting for ANC President. This would not be the first time; President Ramaphosa became the ANC SG from the proverbial 'outside'. A significant body of opinion within the broader ANC membership holds that the next ANC President need not necessarily come from the current NEC. Emboldened by this view, the race will have several other men and women in the front row 'standing' without anyone asking them to 'sit down'. There will, in this succession session, be several who are standing, and only the 2027 elective conference will declare who should 'dula fatshe'.
What
is emerging as the new criterion for leadership of any political party, and
especially the ANC, is the voter appeal of the person it presents as its
Presidential candidate for South Africa. The requirement to be RSA President is
no longer dependent on who the ANC President is, but on who meets the
criteria set by all public representatives in Parliament after an election.
Only when the then President of the ANC meets such criteria would it have the
advantage of its leader being nominated for the ultimate prize in politics: Head of State.
Except
for it being diluted by electoral showing and a maturing multiparty democracy,
a new environment has set in, in which it has become far easier for newcomers,
including those with toxic ideas, to acquire power. The organisation of
political power has been disintegrating into micro units, concentrated in the
hands of a few individuals with linked networks and constituencies outside the
old and traditional power-sourcing systems, such as political parties.
Between
2016 and May 2024, South Africa has demonstrated how the shift in influence
from institutions to individuals is reshaping the landscape of political power.
Individuals can 'stand' without being on the 'podium'. South African
cities, except where one party commands a 50-plus-one threshold, are governed
by a 'cloud’ of individual players that have replaced the centre, "each
with sufficient power to shape political or governmental outcomes, but none
with enough power to unilaterally determine them".
The
era of individuals with no self-standing, ethical, and hard-earned micro social
or political power hiding behind the mega power of old-power-organising
institutions is fast being undermined and disrupted. Organised as a majority-of-minorities,
political power is so successfully unmoored from traditional big parties that a
modern version of feudal politics, legitimised by popular vote, is settling in.
It has now come down to the jockey, less about the horse in the race. Having a
good horse is peripheral.
Never
in the history of the ANC has the self-standing strength of an individual been
such a determinant of leadership as in the cases of raising Jacob Zuma and
Cyril Ramaphosa. This trend, now with refined criteria, has settled and is
disrupting the distance between the podium and the floor, between the front-row
attention and the person with the microphone. The political system cannot
unlearn its experience of a dominant political party; it is relearning how to
hold onto its voting power.
At
the NGC, Mr Motsepe ultimately sat down, noticeably in the front row. The
Secretary General quipped, saying 'a yi hlale phansi I bambe umthetho', loosely
translated as 'sit down and obey the rules of engagement'. What was on display
during the SG-Motsepe interaction at the NGC was a truism that wherever
'institutional' power matters, it is also decaying.
Social
and political capital earned on an individual basis, albeit within contexts
such as distinct villages, faith-based organisations, business communities, sports fan bases, and others, is not easy to regiment or control.
South Africa should 'dula fatshe and observe'; such front-row standings are never innocent. It may well be that a 'standing Mbalula' could not hide the displeasure of a 'standing' Motsepe.
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