The Ukraine Shi(f)t: Ukraine might be the hardware of a collapsing liberal world order.

The invasion of Ukraine marks the end of a World Order many of us only know and believe in. The convulsions that the American-led World Order are experiencing in almost all facets of human life and existence threaten Americans and go to the core of the Americanism with which we have learned to imagine our world and civilisation. The pole position of the American dollar as a symbol of global economic power, notwithstanding its hollowed value by the USA's runaway debt owed to China, is facing its most consequential challenge when America is Presided by its most fragile, physically and otherwise leadership.

As a leader of the liberal order, America focussed on the deployment of its hard power in areas where it knew it would have operational excellence advantage and deployed its rather condescending power of economic sanctions in areas it 'dangerously assumed' its way of life and trade were the lifeline of those societies. The rise of 'independent economies', some of whom made America depend on them for its services addicted economic paradigm, and the strategic take over of its manufacturing prowess under their nose, and using their 'outsourcing' paradigm of 'disguised' slavery in other sovereign spaces, started the prolonged deterioration of the collapse of the order America represented. America's power grew in this context as a branded power rather than a real and practical power, save for its prowess to fake internal economic stability by becoming the in-law outlaw of the world through wars whose basis were and still are manufactured facts that cannot be reconciled with the opposite of lies. 

 

Because countries and China and Russia have demonstrated since the fall of the Berlin Wall, rise as a result of changing capacities focussed wills designed to mitigate risks of being destabilised by arrogant civilisations and growing ambitions necessitated by a visibly collapsing empire such as the US in the past three decades, the inevitability of showing success will always court opportunities of manifestation such as the one we see in Ukraine. The serial mistakes of wanting to upstage a multi-century-old project of wealth and power by the Chinese and a spiritual orthodoxy-inspired imperial ambition of Russians that was truncated by the Bolshevik Revolution experiment of de-feudalising a feudally stubborn Europe and Asia has reached its sell-by date, and Ukraine is but a touched domino. 

 

As the world, including a diplomatic novice in South Africa, shame, and clamours to outdated posture opinions, given the global balance of forces, thinkers should enter this changing international relations space with ideation which departs from a premise that recognises that the old order is never coming back, and efforts to imagine its resurrection might erode opportunities to position correctly in the emerging global power constellations. The time for strategic supremacy at the level and sophistication of Oliver Tambo, when he managed to create a coalition against Apartheid South Africa in the heat of a hot Cold War, has arrived. The wisdom and posture of OR need to be dusted from the shelves we have resigned it into and be foregrounded to be instructional to actions, statements, and postures South Africa takes towards Russia. Any notion of believing that Putin's actions can be reversed should be treated as a calamity of thought because of the following,

 

1.    Putin is aware that China will not openly oppose his actions. Otherwise, it might box itself into a corner that might impact its Taiwan and Hong Kong incorporation ambitions

2.    Putin is aware that Great Britain has not yet resolved its nationalist challenges in Ireland, Wales, and Scotland. Britain's reaction will be sensitive not to redefine its fragile relations within itself

3.    Putin is aware that India has strategic challenges in its northern regions that want Pakistani-type independence, given the ferocious religious polarities in the region

4.    Putin is also aware of the insecurity of Israel in the Middle East, given the low morale and tiredness of American society to commit its citizens to wars that previous administrations have failed to justify, a condition that is an elephant in all NATO boardrooms 

5.    Putin is also aware that power in Germany has just changed hands from a bureaucratic and efficiency-driven Morkel to a fragile coalition that is not ready to risk its ability by engaging in activities that might put its liquified gas-based energy security. Furthermore, the Merkel government was mainly composed of East Germany-trained bureaucrats, notably in the security cluster, and most of them were KGB-trained like he is; the loyalty networks are vast. 

6.    Putin is also aware of the reduced military and CIA budget of the USA, as well as the general fear of a hyped COVID-19 pandemic as a moral discounter of American Ramboism that characterised US western-style policing of the World in the 20th Century

7.    China and Russia have been working on an international transaction switching platform that renders the switch off the prowess of VISA and MasterCard useless. Any American attempt at being punitive might be a launching opportunity for the Russia-Chinese roll-out of the platform and a freeing of the World from US dominance over international trade, including dollar-denominated pricing. 

 

Many other reasons generally mitigate against a possible US reaction despite Sanctions.

 

Out of these Ashes, what should South Africa be thinking? 

 

First, we must accept that this convulsion will spawn new multilateral arrangements, and proper positioning will require a delicate first-mover advantage. This should be viewed in the context of Russian support for the West African Secessionist leaders, notably Mali.

 

Secondly, we must start thinking of our forex relations, including recreating sufficient gold reserves that might re-pound our economy to levels where the new constellations might abrogate to us a seat at the new tables and concerts.

 

Thirdly, we must continuously operate with a mindset that Ukraine is not a bang; the process of taking it over began; a long time ago if you forensically look at the Ukrainian household and private sector indebtedness to Russian banks. 

 

Fourthly, the cyber security prowess of Russia and China, their hacking capability, their beyond 5G technology readiness, their broadband prowess, free from Boeing and Airbus aviation and AirPower, and their effectiveness in controlling the dynamic of politics make the US the most vulnerable to can mount a successful coalition against Russia. 

 

Power is shifting, shift with power before it removes the 'f' from shifting, and you have a mess to deal with. CUT!!!