The invasion of Ukraine marks the end of a World Order many of us only know and believe in. The convulsions that the American-led World Order are experiencing in almost all facets of human life and existence threaten Americans and go to the core of the Americanism with which we have learned to imagine our world and civilisation. The pole position of the American dollar as a symbol of global economic power, notwithstanding its hollowed value by the USA's runaway debt owed to China, is facing its most consequential challenge when America is Presided by its most fragile, physically and otherwise leadership.
As a leader of the liberal order, America focussed on the
deployment of its hard power in areas where it knew it would have operational
excellence advantage and deployed its rather condescending power of economic
sanctions in areas it 'dangerously assumed' its way of life and trade were the
lifeline of those societies. The rise of 'independent economies', some of whom
made America depend on them for its services addicted economic paradigm, and
the strategic take over of its manufacturing prowess under their nose, and
using their 'outsourcing' paradigm of 'disguised' slavery in other sovereign
spaces, started the prolonged deterioration of the collapse of the order
America represented. America's power grew in this context as a branded power
rather than a real and practical power, save for its prowess to fake internal
economic stability by becoming the in-law outlaw of the world through wars whose
basis were and still are manufactured facts that cannot be reconciled with the
opposite of lies.
Because countries and China and Russia
have demonstrated since the fall of the Berlin Wall, rise as a result of
changing capacities focussed wills designed to mitigate risks of being destabilised
by arrogant civilisations and growing ambitions necessitated by a visibly
collapsing empire such as the US in the past three decades, the inevitability
of showing success will always court opportunities of manifestation such as the
one we see in Ukraine. The serial mistakes of wanting to upstage a multi-century-old
project of wealth and power by the Chinese and a spiritual orthodoxy-inspired
imperial ambition of Russians that was truncated by the Bolshevik Revolution
experiment of de-feudalising a feudally stubborn Europe and Asia has reached
its sell-by date, and Ukraine is but a touched domino.
As the world, including a diplomatic
novice in South Africa, shame, and clamours to outdated posture opinions, given
the global balance of forces, thinkers should enter this changing international
relations space with ideation which departs from a premise that recognises that
the old order is never coming back, and efforts to imagine its resurrection
might erode opportunities to position correctly in the emerging global power
constellations. The time for strategic supremacy at the level and
sophistication of Oliver Tambo, when he managed to create a coalition against
Apartheid South Africa in the heat of a hot Cold War, has arrived. The wisdom
and posture of OR need to be dusted from the shelves we have resigned it into
and be foregrounded to be instructional to actions, statements, and postures
South Africa takes towards Russia. Any notion of believing that Putin's actions
can be reversed should be treated as a calamity of thought because of the
following,
1.
Putin
is aware that China will not openly oppose his actions. Otherwise, it might box
itself into a corner that might impact its Taiwan and Hong Kong incorporation
ambitions
2.
Putin
is aware that Great Britain has not yet resolved its nationalist challenges in
Ireland, Wales, and Scotland. Britain's reaction will be sensitive not to
redefine its fragile relations within itself
3.
Putin
is aware that India has strategic challenges in its northern regions that want Pakistani-type
independence, given the ferocious religious polarities in the region
4.
Putin
is also aware of the insecurity of Israel in the Middle East, given the low morale
and tiredness of American society to commit its citizens to wars that previous
administrations have failed to justify, a condition that is an elephant in all
NATO boardrooms
5.
Putin
is also aware that power in Germany has just changed hands from a bureaucratic
and efficiency-driven Morkel to a fragile coalition that is not ready to risk
its ability by engaging in activities that might put its liquified gas-based
energy security. Furthermore, the Merkel government was mainly composed of East
Germany-trained bureaucrats, notably in the security cluster, and most of them
were KGB-trained like he is; the loyalty networks are vast.
6.
Putin
is also aware of the reduced military and CIA budget of the USA, as well as the
general fear of a hyped COVID-19 pandemic as a moral discounter of American
Ramboism that characterised US western-style policing of the World in the 20th
Century
7.
China
and Russia have been working on an international transaction switching platform
that renders the switch off the prowess of VISA and MasterCard useless. Any
American attempt at being punitive might be a launching opportunity for the Russia-Chinese
roll-out of the platform and a freeing of the World from US dominance over
international trade, including dollar-denominated pricing.
Many other reasons generally mitigate
against a possible US reaction despite Sanctions.
Out of these Ashes, what should South
Africa be thinking?
First, we must accept that this convulsion
will spawn new multilateral arrangements, and proper positioning will require a
delicate first-mover advantage. This should be viewed in the context of Russian
support for the West African Secessionist leaders, notably Mali.
Secondly, we must start thinking of our
forex relations, including recreating sufficient gold reserves that might
re-pound our economy to levels where the new constellations might abrogate to
us a seat at the new tables and concerts.
Thirdly, we must continuously operate with
a mindset that Ukraine is not a bang; the process of taking it over began; a
long time ago if you forensically look at the Ukrainian household and private
sector indebtedness to Russian banks.
Fourthly, the cyber security prowess of
Russia and China, their hacking capability, their beyond 5G technology
readiness, their broadband prowess, free from Boeing and Airbus aviation and
AirPower, and their effectiveness in controlling the dynamic of politics make
the US the most vulnerable to can mount a successful coalition against
Russia.
Power is shifting, shift with power before
it removes the 'f' from shifting, and you have a mess to deal with. CUT!!!
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