There is a growing narrative that the recent conferences of the ANC, notably the Mpumalanga provincial and the eThekwini regional conferences signal a shift in support for Ramaphosa, this blog piece argues there are in fact shifts in his favour than many would notice. However, this narrative might be enjoying the benefit of a precedence set in the immediate past national elective conference of the ANC where eThekwini became the primal launching pad of the NDZ17 campaign and the Mpumalanga Province's 'unity vote' tipping the scales in favor of a 'unity of the irreconcilable slate' of tense factions predominant in the current ANC leadership. The narrative's theory is premised on the assumption that the Mpumalanga vote, that has a now absent DD Mabuza iron influence, will command the king maker status it has. What this narrative might have not yet factored in is the extent to which NASREC17 could be repeatable in December 2022 or not.
Notwithstanding the anachronistic nature
of this narrative, there seem to be visible, although not conclusive, signs of
early territorial conquest by forces reportedly being anti-Ramaphosa. In the
last leadership contest, there were few to no restraints for an outright campaign, by this
time of that year, battle lines were drawn along two clearly identifiable leaders
who were already vocal about what they stood for. Public lectures modeled
around past leaders of the Tripartite Alliance were already platforms for
campaigning. In-ANC rallies, generally controlled by the then incumbents, were already
in full swing to support one candidate or the other. The opinion poll mills were hard at work manufacturing consents and consensuses on candidates.
Compliance with the norms of in-ANC
election contestation had by this time already suffered not only defeat but fractured to point of extinction. Notions
of who controlled the momentum and cadence of in-ANC electioneering were rendered so imperfect
that new tendencies settled in and dare I say for posterity's sake. The template of in-ANC
electioneering shifted as American-style primaries took over, and the nostalgic underground inspired, somewhat modernity denying, and impractical
mantra of 'waiting for your name to be raised' got suffocated by the grand entrance of
in-party funding by the interests of capital defending benefactors. Factions
within the ANC had by this time already resigned themselves to observing the
sanctity of the will of funders or at least maintaining a posture of doing
so. Assertiveness in those that have ambitions to lead became a beneficiary of this particular shift.
Now, with the recent outcomes of
conferences, and the emerging statistics therefrom, the norm of Mpumalanga's
unity vote and the eThekwini primacy in mounting a challenge against Ramaphosa
is facing one of its consequential tests given a plethora of candidates in the
non-Ramaphosa camp. Never had the ANC facing an elective conference in the next
eight months been without two clear contesting candidates, save for rats and
mice consolidatable in the last three months before the conference. None of
these contests is reminiscent of any of previous eras. The indecision by those wanting to dislodge Ramaphosa on one candidate, and the apparently liquidated standing of early suitors to stand is a liability whose disposal can only benefit the retention of Ramaphosa. The pressure to subsume
any contesting candidate as a potential Deputy President of the ANC is not only
a possible survival pathway for the ANC and an opportunity to woe voters in 2024 but may at the
same time bring more political careers to the edge of extinction if not end.
The 40-45% average polling of the Ramaphosa
camp thus far, and without votes of the leagues, and the dynamic of who will
ultimately emerge as the lead candidate of those advocating for a non-Ramaphosa
candidature, spawn an array of scenarios for a conference era of our politics.
The reality of beyond ANC members voter support for a candidate other than Ramaphosa might dictate
a different sense to those leading sub-national structures of the ANC once they
would have consolidated themselves. In fact, the prize of being in government as a reward of good politics will outrun the factional interest of those advocating a no Ramaphosa continuity. Arguably, the eThekwini outcome might be a function of governing party or coalition status in the region than a genuinely considered analysis of the balance of forces nationally. At stake will be one of the bedrock
principles of politics, the integrity of interests as the currency of politics.
The dearth of blind solidarity to those that have lost lukstre with society due
to being at variance with the law might be the prize to society this
contest would have bequeathed.
In other words, when leaders, as sovereign
individuals, concede that they can no longer act in the interests of a
collective at variance with the law, they will effectively cease to be an
'injury to one is an injury to the nation brigades' that have characterized
rationalizations against the ANC's integrity management system. A tribe defined by its relationship with what law abiding South Africans expect of leadership might indeed be dying for the nation to thrive. At the end of
this contest, there will be many that would have disappeared for good from the
political landscape of South Africa; good riddance. In the new period, where prosecution of
those fingered in the Zondo Commission, and without fear or favour, would either be in
process or completed, South Africa might emerge as a towering example of a
society that dealt with the scourge of corruption whilst carrying its critical
polities and interests along.
Slowly but surely, there is a new cohort
of leaders, who are by the way still politicians with a propensity to pursue
corrupt enterprises as long as they are not caught or have been sophisticated
enough to meet corruption cleansing requirements of declaration of interests,
that are pushing back against the practice of unbridled corruption. Ramaphosa,
for all his sins and weaknesses, is emerging as a fearless proponent of clean
government, and a guarantor of integrity by those entrusted with public power
and its attendant resources/responsibilities.
The mere acceptance of nomination to a position and declaring that you will step down after being elected is sufficient proof that South Africa has arrived or is in the midst of a dispensation wherein 'standards of appropriate behavior for those acting within a given identity' rule society. Public accountability has found an ally in this unconscious repudiation of the self. Those that have pronounced preparedness to step aside are in fact abdicating the potential rebellious spirit that resolved to impose them against the integrity management system. Buoyed by approval ratings, Ramaphosa and his NWC, should view the enforcement and self-enforcement of the now established normative context within the ANC as a key element of enforcing ethical stability in South Africa.
Leaders adhere to normative statehood for various reasons. Some might be for
building ethicalness, and others for long-term strategic economic interests of
positioning the country as an investment destination of natural choice to
like-minded businesspersons. In South Africa the expectation is for leaders to embrace ethical statehood that a Ramaphosa presidency has been crafting for the sake of future generations. The poor leadership that has resulted in the disintegration of societies in Southern Africa, behind the largest youth migrations in search better opportunities cannot be a portion for the future of this country.
If the recent outcomes are indeed a shift
in support of Ramaphosa as a person, they are certainly not a shift against
what the ANCs emerging integrity management system is about. The shift cannot
be about abandoning state capture and its adjunct corruption. The shift cannot
mean the normalization of criminality as a norm to ascend to public office. The
jury is therefore still out on the true meaning of these shifts as the
narrative claims. The silence of those that can stem the emerging tides will be
as consequential as the noise of the rebellious.
The apparent repudiation of the ANCs
integrity management system represented by the step aside rule through the
recent conference outcomes is shining light on the precariousness of normative
statehood against corruption and all its adjuncts. The good news is that
besides those that won declaring to step aside after being elected, the outrage
has been swift and broad, with many being worried about the outcome undermining
the giant leaps South Africa has taken to deter corruption. The fate of the
normative statehood path we have chosen depends on the extent to which conference
delegates in subsequent conferences will separate the policy objects of the
outcome from the defense of pathways to a failing state. Whilst we have little
to fear of the policy intents behind the outcomes, there is legitimacy in those
that fear the misinterpretation of these victories associated with the demise
of the integrity management system to mean a determination to curtail the
crafting of normative statehood as a permanent brand position for South Africa.
CUT!!!
🤷🏿♂️A ndzo ti vulavulela
🤷🏿♂️Ek praat maar net, want ek moet
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