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The governing party might be in or at the foot of a rebellion. My gibberish.

Published on the Sunday Times 23 January 2024

When Jacob Zuma announced his decision to campaign for the MK Party actively, South Africa's political order started fretting about the implications. The ANC's unusual response indicated that the decision caught them off guard. While the opposition complex was expected to be exited at the birth of yet another party to weaken the ANC, they were uncharacteristically mute in their celebration or otherwise. The response of the ANC's vocal elders, the calculated response of COSATU, and that of the 'Establishment' clergy and civil society have displayed a form of paralysis.

With reports of high-profile resignations, citing retirement as their reason by ANC leaders known to have not supported Ramaphosa in the 2017 and 2022 conferences, the ANC might be at the foot of what qualifies as an internal rebellion, definition-wise. This is supported by the fact that the ANCYL is reported to have made known its distaste of the Jacob Zuma decision but would want the reasons he gave for doing so to be discussed. If the discussion is entertained, it will give credence to Jacob Zuma's reasons for his decision and be seen as the earliest opening of the 2027 succession debate within the ANC.

The Faustian pact character of the agreement the ANC entered with Mavuso Msimanga, to the effect that those implicated in corruption and state capture should not be considered as representatives of the ANC, is a dynamic whose implementation never anticipated the Zuma decision. The reality is that its implementation will open the debate on the inconsistencies in dealing with corruption and state capture across the board, including the resolution of the definition of state capture by the ANC. Should the 'pact' be followed to its proper conclusion, the list of those mentioned in the Zondo Commission and other investigative reports will test the integrity of the ANC and its ability to withstand the fightback by some of its influential members implicated in the report.

This happens when the post-2017 and 2022 in-ANC electoral triumph purging process is still in full force and liquidating innocent businesses. The purge included refusal to pay legitimate invoices (some with order numbers) for factional reasons, manipulated disciplinary hearings to purge those perceived as NDZ faction from senior public service positions, malicious public prosecutions without evidence, prosecutions that do not end except bankrupting the falsely through protracted legal costs, and reckless recalling, and inexplainable putting of organs of state under administration. These truths are choking the capability of the ANC to fight the ground-swelling support the Jacob Zuma decision is generating for the MK Party and, tangentially, the EFF.

There is also the underlying discontent about economic transformation within the business elites of African origin, the dynamic of the economic freedom in our lifetime generation within the ANC, whose generational mission is struggling to breathe within the ANC as a political party, the emboldened belief in the demise of the ANC by the non-black and economic correct thinking substrate in the opposition complex, and the in-ANC displeasure about the decisions it has taken which were in support of the DA have all emboldened the difficulty of finding the reasons of Zuma decision invalid.

The growing support of the Zuma decision by independent African churches, who have been on the receiving end of marginalisation from the Church-State relationship by the establishment, is still to be examined regarding its impact on voter support for the MK Party. The institution of traditional leadership, which has always had Zuma as its visible node in the ANC NEC, has been cautiously welcoming the idea of the MK Party, with some traditional leaders outwardly praising what the initiative holds for them comparable to the current dispensation.

In the cognitive elite circles, there have also been murmurings and, in certain instances, definite calls for establishing the 'second republic'. The Constitution of the Republic has been under pressure for it to be reviewed. The CODESA settlement has also been put into a cocktail of what should be reviewed. The tripartite alliance is under pressure with COSATU decrying the policy inconsistency of the ANC, and the SACP has its challenges related to the growing revelations of the yet-to-be-proven possibility of malfeasance by its senior leaders.

As per tradition, the delay in releasing the ANC's list for consultation at a list conference is one of the sure indicators of a deeper problem. Uncoordinated protests have already questioned the legitimacy of provincial lists submitted for the National Process. Some provinces still must convene list conferences. The What is in It for Me brigades have unleashed campaigns to undermine anything that does not include them. In this vortex, there are reports of some nominees being called for interviews to be MPs.

A political rebellion is explained as (a violent) action organised by a group of people who are trying to change the political system in their country. As South Africans assert their freedoms as promised in the Constitution, the political interests impeding the realisation of these freedoms have created a condition for the country to embrace any maverick that can ignite a rebellion. The challenges at the centre of the liberation movement are a cocktail for a rebellion. The Zuma decision to support the MK Party while insisting he is still a member of the ANC is, at best, a rebellion. Its proportions will be seen during the counting of votes after the elections. CUT!!

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