Our Coalitions and Geopolitics: Siyazi cabangela nje, shem.

The post–2021 government by coalition landscape in RSA was primarily created by an opposition complex that played to its strengths. The opposition sees ANC's dislodgement from the governing party status as an opportunity in the coalition government chaos. The opposition complex leaders are exploiting and escalating the growing discontent with the ANC's on-the-immediate doorstep service delivery dysfunctions to elevate their stature, weaken and delegitimise its deployees, undermine its NDR hegemonic interests, and further shape the democratic order in their favour. The opposition complex is now in a better position than ever to dominate the national discourse, including the ability to disrupt the intergovernmental relations system at multiple and critical chokepoints of service delivery.

 

Left unchecked, the dramatic expansion of the opposition complex's influence would have a catastrophic impact on the strategic initiative about South Africa's transformation. Included would be the SADC. To disrupt this amplification of coalition government power, the ANC NEC must urgently and decisively articulate and implement a clear strategy to protect the gains of the NDR from bearing the brunt of service delivery dysfunction where it is the governing party in municipal and provincial jurisdictions. There is a strategic exigency to counter the opposition complex's corrosive litigation-war-by-proxy strategy, and the growing service delivery issue defined the civil society capabilities of the opposition complex's accomplices. 

 

Addressing these strategic tasks will necessitate a series of actions by Luthuli House. The challenge is that as RSA citizens, ANC members have grown weary of the social responsibility and personal reputation toll of their organization's commitment to Project South Africa. However, no other leader of the society movement, except the ANC, can curtail the ambitions of the opposition complex. The ANC must manage how its members reclaim the strategic leader of society initiative, thereby containing or truncating the potentially devastating long-term consequences of establishing an NDS. 

 

Since the ANC lost outright governing party status in RSA's economic nodal district municipality zones, their geopolitical significance beyond our sovereign borders has significantly increased. They have, for instance, been optimised on the radar of ratings agencies and are getting ratings as jurisdictions. The sponsorship of the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act to facilitate regime change by removing the governing ANC indicates the geopolitical character of the opposition complex's allies. 

 

The growing international profile of the opposition complex and its growing appetite for a federal or confederacy of RSA, juxtaposed against the Suez Canal as a global economic chokepoint, should signal that the intensity of regime change in RSA is not opportunistic and impulsive. It is a consequence of a time-tested geo-strategic playbook of geopolitical interests from boardrooms in which we are least if at all, represented. 

 

From the funders and strategic objectives of the opposition complex perspective- the current renewal-induced crisis within the ANC, the dysfunctions in how the state is governed, disturbing service delivery and public infrastructure disintegrations, near paralysis condition of organs of state dealing with organised crime, the immigration challenges that have become a national security risk, and the chronic and growing youth unemployment rates- are only accelerating a shift in the power balance away from ANC hegemony and leader of society status towards a new opposition-led hegemony supportive of the geo-strategic value attachments made to a non-ANC governed South Africa. 

 

The regime change objective of the opposition complex's handlers in South Africa trumps every other priority. It is characterised as the first step to stop growing Africa or continent-wide confidence to go it alone, thus starting the final push towards all other sovereignties (food, mineral, and energy) Africa had been choked to realise. The risk of miscalculating the nature of the regime change threat and overconfidence in the fact that our people will always vote for us is creeping. The cognitive, legal, elite-driven, and funded fight-RSA transformation-through-litigation army has developed a tenacious and adaptable strategy to protect the existing templates of neo-colonial dominance over the country. Given the increasing budgets for control of the geo-strategic power of the Cape of Good Hope route to global trade, the resources at their disposal to fight have become plentiful for a dedicated litigation-driven total onslaught. 

 

With Apartheid as a formal system being relatively distant and the battering of the moral high ground to clean RSA of its vestiges gotten in the corruption and state capture reports, it has become difficult to argue the case for deficits on our transformation balance sheet as envisaged by the liberation promise in the Constitution. This has put the opposition complex in a better position than ever to dominate or grab the hegemonic initiative. The ANC and indications are that it will still get the 50% threshold to govern alone and should be deliberate in rebuilding a pro-liberation promise civil society coalition to compact with. Riding on a Ramaphosian resolve against corruption and state capture, a focus on service delivery is non-negotiable. 

 

Continuing the current template of managing the economy and resolving the land issue as a national grievance would constitute both a strategic and a moral failure for the ANC. Unlike in other parts of the world where democratic orders that are hostile to the geopolitical objectives of the reigning global order are militarily supported to manufacture crisis, fragile, and failed states, in South Africa, the process is facilitated through proxy litigation battles and exploitation of the entrenched multi-party character of our democracy. The relationship between the opposition complex and its geo-strategic partners is innocent because we need to know which factions within the movement operate in the interest of the same hegemonic intentions.

 

I WAS THINKING ABOUT THESE THINGS NOTHING WRONG TO THINK ABOUT THINGS...ASTERE!!!