The ANC showing in the 2016 Municipal Elections results represents its most visible repudiation by urban voters that cared to go to the polls. It redefined the political control and management of municipal budgets in South Africa's major metropolitan areas. It put on the sharp end of any analysis tool the continued or otherwise hegemony of the ANC as the nexus of political life in South Africa.
The loss of Tshwane Metro to a DA led opposition coalition or arrangement, meant the capital city of Africa's most advanced democracy could only be a flagship of the vibrancy of the inherent democratic nature of the country's constitutional choices. As though this was not enough, the loss of the country's economic hub, Joburg, and the 'home of most' liberation struggle personalities, Nelson Mandela Bay, sounded a different warning, a cradle of political disintegration. If we factor in the delicate coalition at Africa's manufacturing hub, Ekhurhuleni, the political permutation of South Africa's political power geography rings a rather interesting stability bell.
Permeating the general performance of the ANC in most municipalities was the growth of 'voter apathy' and 'anti-ANC sentiment' by those that did vote. Compounding this problem was the service delivery performance and backlog exacerbated by a progressively shrinking economy, whose impact is still felt by the 'local state's fiscus'. The general mismanagement of the ANC's own internal politics and a coterie of chronic ideological and 'greed' propelled factionalism which has seemingly replaced a pre-governing party vibrancy that defined the ANC, has also begun to repel the finest of its minds to commit to its credibility as a 'voice' and 'leader' of society.
This bouquet of political and socio-economic outcomes, which can arguably be pinned on a mast, as reasons for the decline, and by extension disintegration of political support for the ANC, as a liberation movement, have in the process become a defining feature of what a post-apartheid ANC has become. The voter trends of 2016, generally a culmination of what has been developing since the 1999 national election vote and all other subsequent voter performances, started to show their political disintegrative power first within the ANC itself in 2017 and on a national scale in 2019.
Within the ANC, the internal list processes that preceded the 2016 municipal elections saw battles to be 'municipal councillors' assuming an unapologetic character of 'what is in it for me and my faction', more than the 'public service' intents of the 'public power' that goes with being elected. This trend allowed for 'new breeds and creeds' of 'municipal-based' leaders of the ANC to wrestle control of 'branch leadership' out of a few that still 'valued' the 'public service' importance of 'public power'. The 'what is in it for me' 'value' attached to being 'a leader' of the ANC, the 'my leader' and 'leadership' brigades that replaced 'comrades', made those entrusted with directing the ANC's future at its conferences to be 'auctionable' to the 'highest bidder' at these conferences.
Inside the ANC this has created a political economy of its conferences, whose funding has become the new focus of 'economic interest' driven 'corrupters' from within an otherwise 'shrewd' private sector. Outside funding of the private sector, the use of public funds, mainly from state revenues, to 'purchase' branches has become the currency through which the trades of the 'my leader' and 'leadership' brigades depends upon. The capacity of the ANC to decisively deal with these ailments has been further compromised by the ability of funders of 'non-national interests' to sway the policy direction of the ANC away from threatening their 'interests', notably 'criminality-related' interests such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, illicit financial flows, Illegal immigration. In fact, and arguably, there is anecdotal evidence that some of the new political parties are a creation of the under world to formalise itself.
Faced with these challenges, the leadership response of the ANC, threatened by the reality of political power fizzling out of their hands, has been to play hard ball and love to an otherwise 'what is in it for me' brigade of sub-national leaders. In their quest to weed-out this brigade, the ANC came with integrity management mechanisms and leadership selection criteria whose acceptance can only mean a mass expulsion of a coterie of politicians whose right of existence is defined by this chaos. The almost 50:50 split outcome of the NASREC conference meant in-ANC political power dynamics could only be resolved through the use of the 'public power' that goes with being an 'elected' 'organ of state' with 'executive authority' over other 'organs of state'. The battle for the soul of the ANC and the country found itself inside 'elected organs of state', because the 'public power' resident therein belongs to South Africans beyond the in-ANC 50:50 splits and factions related thereto. Corrupted and state captured organs of state emerged as areas within which 'public power' could be deployed to weed out of the state 'breeds and creeds' of 'leadership' from the public service and by extension also out of the ANC itself.
This drive, emanating out of the electoral misfortunes that started with the 2016 outcome, has grown to being the most riskiest of political campaigns taken by a ANC President. This being a human endeavour, the human factor would have found its space and corner. The decision by some around the President, including the President himself, to go beyond the call of duty and personal interests, would have meant their own lives would be put under a microscope. The forensics associated thereto have and are continuing to unravel their 'skeletons in the closet'. Their skeletons, and they are there, would require from society a decision to weigh such against the thought of not having them as leaders who are dealing with the 'my leader' and 'leadership' phenomenon undergirded by a 'what is in it for me' breeds and creeds of 'public servants'
It is thus my submission that the 2016 Municipal Elections were a cradle of political disintegrations to come in South Africa. As for the ANC, what might still be holding it together is its liberation struggle credentials and brand, more than what it is practically doing to stay-on as leader of society. As cynics would argue "if the South African society is the most unequal in the world, it has a 60% youth unemployment, a below 1% GDP growth, highest alcohol consumption in the world, and higher ranking on the corruption index; and the ANC continues to call itself a leaders of society; it follows that it might be leading these".
It defies electoral logic as to why the ANC has been able to be returned to government given the observable dysfunctional local state, as reports of the Auditor General point.
🤷🏽♂️A ndzo ti vulavulela
🤷🏽♂️Be ngisho nje
🤷🏽♂️Ek praat maar net.
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