Like any system, a
democratic order is susceptible to disruptions it least anticipates.
Democracies navigate complex paths created by those agreeing to govern
themselves. One of the most significant disruptors of a democracy is when an
election happens, and there is no outright winner. This disrupts paradigms of
the majority rules sections of society. It turns upside down the conception of
freedom In liberation struggle parties.
The
sixth administration of President Ramaphosa is left with less than twelve
months to hand over to a seventh administration. The political mandate of South
Africa would have been renewed by the end of August 2024. The true feelings of
more than 50% of South Africans about the governing ANC would be known as the
voter numbers are collated to give election results at the national and
provincial spheres of government. What will soon start preoccupying the minds
of thinkers and analysts is the impact of a below 50% threshold performance by
the governing ANC. There is a body of opinion about this impact. This rendition
interrogates challenges and implications.
The
brute truth is that our democracy as we knew it at the national level will
never be the same. Due to citizen support, the governing ANC might have had the
last thirty years as the only period it could govern South Africa alone.
Arguably, the previous fifteen years might go in its history as a period of
power squandering, albeit in which its resolve to have fought for South
Africans to elect whomever they want to govern them freely will be tested.
The
era of coalitions has arrived. Interests as the currency of politics will now
take centre stage. Political parties will henceforth negotiate their policies
with civil society movements that have been rising as the ANC was masterminding
its decline in influence. "A ‘cloud’ of players has replaced
the centre, each with some power to shape political or political economy
outcomes, but none with enough power to unilaterally determine them."
The
greatest lesson about what is unfolding in South Africa is that the 2016 and
2021 municipal elections have proven that loss of power erodes influence. It is
true that "people and institutions acquire, use and lose power (and this)
offers insights into why... and how obscure start-ups can abruptly displace
rival giants". What the 1994 democratic breakthrough did, apart from
enabling us as a society to be democratic, foregrounds the reality that
"power is spreading", and new and smaller ones will challenge
long-established organisations. In matters of societal freedom, as promised by
the Constitution, no single political formation will be able to call the shots
in national politics as much as some of the 'outside rule of law' post-liberation
governing parties did in the past.
The
idea of South Africa not being governed by the ANC has occupied the attention
of scenario planners, thinkers, and system resilience consulting firms for a
while. Fortunately for this community, transitioning from a National Party rule
to a post-apartheid South Africa provides not-so-distant memories to learn
from. Then there was freedom from apartheid euphoria and the Mandela effect
that kept society together. The theme was to reconstruct a nation tormented by
a past characterised by oppression, conflict, economic exclusion, and
systematic racism.
The
decision to manage the transition through a legal process and keep the public
administration system intact helped creates a seamless move from one
administration to another with minimal disruptions. This remains a bequeathed
legacy of transition from FW de Klerk to Nelson Mandela that South Africa has
thus far inherited and lived throughout its last thirty years in all spheres of
government. The visionary move by the governing ANC to start a national
dialogue on transitioning from a one-governing party state to a coalition
government one is a dividend of the Mandela-De Klerk-led legacy. The dialogue
is about creating conditions for this transition and not disrupting the
constitutional order in which its prevention and promotion towers South
Africa's National Interests.
However,
"no two disruptions follow identical scripts, but the management of risk
and disruption does encompass three general activities: prevention, detection,
and response.” The dialogue on coalitions is indication enough that the
governing ANC, through the leadership of its assigned deputy president Paul
Mashatile, who plied his leadership lessons from one of South Africa's
coalition juggernauts, the United Democratic Front, is au fait with its
obligations of prevention, detection, and response. The pending transition, if the
ANC fails to gunner a more than 50% poll, will test the depth of national
leadership South Africa commands since the departure from active politics by
the Mandela cohort. Protégés from that era that followed that cohort have a
jury still waiting to pronounce how they fared to hold the centre after the
great bequeathal.
Even
so, the expectation from the dialogue is that it should identify for society
what is predictable and proffer solutions. At best, the process should insulate
the public service to continue with the business of public administration.
Given that our democratic order can never have a single public service, the
process should lay a foundation for a singular public sector focused on keeping
the wheels of the state going. In politics, as we have seen in South Africa's
major economic nodal points, the disaster of leadership consensus from parties
contesting for political power is a constant not disruption that can airbrush.
However, the best leaders learn from disruptions and respond faster after each
one. This is simply because "prevention and response are complementary aspects
of (political) risk management, and different (leaders) may emphasise different
focuses in one over the other.” This, and society seems to believe, the SPOKES
(pun intended) working on the wheel that our constitutional, political, and
democratic order is, will hold it as the dialogue unfolds. CUT!!!
Comments
Post a Comment