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Showing posts from June, 2024

Beyond May 29 Confusion reigns but some kind of coalition is certain

This was published in the Sunday Times on 02 June 2024 As the ink on the ballot papers dries, South Africa stands at a pivotal moment, grappling with fundamental questions. The Parliament is in suspense, with the governing party falling short of the required 50% threshold. It has struggled to secure more than 40% voter support in the provincial sphere. The economic powerhouses of South Africa are now in the hands of negotiators. The ANC's opposition and the ‘wenzeni uZuma’ movement, a significant player in these elections, have united to form a formidable coalition government player in KZN, Gauteng, and the National sphere.   Therefore, coalition arrangements will be in provinces with significant metropolitan areas governed by coalitions. The coalition government by all cost movement is moving forward fitfully into the provincial and national spheres of government. This movement's advantage in understanding how to make its majority of minorities power, which it has consolidated...

Decoding the May 29 election outcome lessons.

The puzzling question about South Africa's construction of a government of national unity is: if the DA evolved into an opposition juggernaut it has become through competition for political hegemony with the ANC, will it ever be able to cooperate with it? With a 22% minority vote, the DA's hegemonic majority mindset has been boosted by the failure of the ANC to muster a 50% plus one majority to dictate the pace and cadence of RSA's constitutional democracy. The 2024 election outcome has upended the template of one single-party dominance and introduced a majority of minorities system the Constitution might have prepared for since its inception.  The resilience of our constitutional democracy, demonstrated by the ability of political parties to adapt and recover in the face of change, is a reassuring factor. Despite 40% of eligible voters abstaining, the 2024 election outcome, while not a perfect reflection of societal preferences, is a testament to the system's robustnes...

Undo public service patronage by refusing apartheid in fresh suit.

This was published in the Business Day 26 June 2020 South Africa is entering an intensive phase of coalition government. A lot that should be reset must be foregrounded. Public Service reform must take advantage of this policy boom cycle. Electoral majority governing partyism choked reforms that could have moved the proverbial needle. The GNU statement of intent is evident in the principles that underpin it. One of the thematic areas of focus is a professional, merit-based, non-partisan, developmental public service that puts people first. The historical opposition complex has since 1994 been vocal about cadre deployment as the source of public service and sector dysfunction.  While there is consensus that 'cadre deployment' was vulnerable to being misconstrued and thus abused, its objectives and variously interpreted iterations in other democracies, such as it being presented as national c-suite management, remains one of the proven strategic interventions a nation can make to...

The progressive caucus parties might grab the strategic initiative

This was published in TimeLive on 22 June 2024 Since the groundbreaking announcement by Jacob Zuma that he will be spearheading the MK Party's campaign in the 2024 elections, South African politics have taken a dramatic turn. The well-oiled propaganda machine, which had already settled on a consensus about the election's outcome, started using Zuma, the individual, to undermine the MK Party. The ANC was relieved of the burden of being the sole target. The narrative of ensuring the ANC loses absolute majority power resonated with the MK Party, where various dissatisfied members of the ANC were seeking an alternative. Against all odds, the MK Party has survived and thrived, defying the initial dismissals as a group of disgruntled ANC activists. The establishment has not learnt despite a known history of Jacob Zuma thriving on any characterisation of 'his projects' within the corruption and state capture narrative.    The leaders of RSA have been vocal about their priority...

Decoding ideation, hegemonic contestation, and the GNU

This was published on Sunday Times 23 June 2024 The inauguration of President Ramaphosa as head of state for the 7 th Administration is not just a change in leadership but a significant shift in South African politics. It marks a decisive departure from the past thirty years of an absolute majority governing party dispensation to a multiparty coalition government. This new arrangement, mandated by the South African people, allows the 7 th administration leadership to operate outside dogmatic party-political obligations. It elevates the importance of the Constitution as a framework through which their party mandates and interests would be realisable. This can only mean that Ramaphosa took an oath of office and accepted the responsibility of leading a national consensus on unity, growth, and development.   The statement of intent, despite being misconstrued as an agreement between the ANC and the DA, is a broad enough framework to accommodate all political parties committed to...

DECODING IDEATION, HEGEMONIC CONTESTATION, AND THE GNU: THE ANC SHOULD BE TRUSTED AGAIN

Published in the Sunday Times on 23 June 2024 The inauguration of President Ramaphosa as head of state for the 7 th Administration is not just a change in leadership, but a significant shift in South African politics. It marks a decisive departure from the past thirty years of an absolute majority governing party dispensation to a multiparty coalition government. This new arrangement, mandated by the South African people, allows the 7 th administration leadership to operate outside dogmatic party-political obligations. It elevates the importance of the Constitution as a framework through which their party mandates and interests would be realisable. This can only mean that Ramaphosa took an oath of office and accepted the responsibility of leading a national consensus on unity, growth, and development.   Despite being misconstrued as an agreement between the ANC and the DA, the statement of intent is a broad enough framework to accommodate all political parties committed to...

Revolutionaries have a sell-and-use-by date.

  What sets businesspeople apart is their remarkable skill in transforming anything or anyone into a marketable entity. They establish the terms of trade, the shelf-life, and the 'sell and use by date '. Their approach to all relationships, be they human or otherwise, mirrors that of investment bankers. The return on investment is a universal metric in their lives. They define their identity based on their bottom-line objectives. Their conscience is a product of their contribution to their projections and scenarios. Certainty is a prerequisite, and they will either purchase or engineer it.  In their pursuit, they acquire all forms of intellectual capital that can alter social and political dynamics. Political capital, which they recognize as abundant among the otherwise purchasable politicians and the body politic, is a variable investment they commit to over time.    As a society, we neither learn civic skills nor experience civic practices in our schoolwork c...

Now for the dialogue: the voters ordered it

Historical events, especially destiny-defining ones, tend to yield unintended consequences. History is a collection of human decisions, actions, and reactions, more acutely their impact on society, politics, and economics. The outcome of the 2024 elections has put us in a new post-something. While we are still in a post-apartheid context, we are now entering a post-single majority party context. It is the beginning of a realignment of politics to enable the country and society to  fitfully  enter global competitiveness as a nation.  The time for a genuine centre to emerge and hold has come. RSA must take on characteristics of a single voice and common national interest sovereign state. It must have sufficient unity, central authority, and effective decision-making to defend South Africa's shared interests and values as articulated in its supreme law, the Constitution.  For a while, South Africans have always looked at themselves through their own affairs lenses, whic...

As the system matures, it isolates.

  The seventh administration will go on to history as the culmination of a convergence of the political, constitutional, democratic, economic, and judicial order in the Republic of South Africa. Dubbed the most consequential elections since 1994, it has foregrounded several interests, including the bursting to the centre of ethnic, racial, ideological, and economic interests within a context of no absolute majority party in charge. The triumph of proportional representation and minority representation in the centre of government, a consolidation of the political establishment, is also creating relationships that are beginning to be driven by national interest. It is now a reality that RSA political parties are in a government of national unity, either participating or in the opposition benches.  Notwithstanding their voter support evidence, the system has isolated those opposed to the past thirty years' threaded establishment’s consensus. The political and economic order has...

THE STATE OF THE NATION-STATE

This was published in TimesLive on 10th June 2024.  The 2024 National and Provincial elections, a pivotal moment in South African politics, have concluded. The process of forming a government is now in motion and hinges on the configurations of coalitions and the confidence-in-supply arrangements. In their collective wisdom, the voters have set the course of our political landscape. A National Assembly, its members yet to be sworn in, is now a reality. The voters have sent a clear message to the politicians, urging them to prioritize the interests of South Africa over their own party affiliations.    As per the voters' mandate, in 2024, South Africa will be a nation that operates within the framework of its constitution. It does not require an absolute majority to prosper. It needs leadership that upholds the country's Constitution as the supreme law. We have just witnessed in RSA that no government can assert authority unless it is founded on the people's will. The peopl...