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Beyond May 29 Confusion reigns but some kind of coalition is certain

This was published in the Sunday Times on 02 June 2024


As the ink on the ballot papers dries, South Africa stands at a pivotal moment, grappling with fundamental questions. The Parliament is in suspense, with the governing party falling short of the required 50% threshold. It has struggled to secure more than 40% voter support in the provincial sphere. The economic powerhouses of South Africa are now in the hands of negotiators. The ANC's opposition and the ‘wenzeni uZuma’ movement, a significant player in these elections, have united to form a formidable coalition government player in KZN, Gauteng, and the National sphere.

 

Therefore, coalition arrangements will be in provinces with significant metropolitan areas governed by coalitions. The coalition government by all cost movement is moving forward fitfully into the provincial and national spheres of government. This movement's advantage in understanding how to make its majority of minorities power, which it has consolidated its experience about in local government, work in its favour as it increases its hegemonic power is now a reality the democratic order has contended with. 

 

South Africa has crossed a threshold, ushering in a monumental shift in the political power structure. We are entering an era of intense coalition government, a landscape that will not only reshape the power dynamics in the nine provinces, 44 district municipalities, 8 metropolitan municipalities, and countless local municipalities but also fundamentally change the distribution and exercise of power. The political outcome of the 2024 national and provincial elections is a coalition government, a stark departure from the government of national unity in 1994. 

 

The emerging political power configurations will have profound implications for the interactions and transactions between spheres of government. The era of arbitrary political decisions on intergovernmental relations issues is over; authority, power, and competencies must be negotiated. All outstanding regulatory frameworks ignored as IGR was managed through 'family affair' mechanisms must be negotiated and promulgated. The tension between prerogative party-political decisions and the normative dictates of the constitutional order will be disabled. The true power of representative democracy through Parliament and its Chapter 9 and 10 institutions will be foregrounded as the pillar of RSA's democratic order. 

 

The national and provincial budgets are facing a new challenge, yet to be spatially expressed. The fiscus's response to coalition arrangements will require a level of intergovernmental relations maturity envisaged in the Constitution. As the political power ambitions of contesting parties come into play, the cooperation and collaboration between organs of state, elected or appointed, will be tested. The expectation for the public service to loyally execute the lawful policies of the government of the day will be stretched to its limits.  Instead of deploying people into the public service, the state will be compelled to use the existing constitutional framework and commission citizens to do public service.

 

South Africa will require a massive public service relearning intervention to unlearn institutionalised one-party statism. The ‘public service’ in the legislatures, which has conducted itself as a bureaucracy of the governing parties, including the Western Cape, will require recalibration to levels where the legislative authority of the Republic will be reflected in their conduct. In the run-up to the 2024 national elections, public administration and public service legislations, which had one dominant party-political system as a background of permanence, were promulgated. With the ascendance of coalition government into the national sphere of government, the conditions to have a normative policy discourse on public service reform are now in place. The science of public administration and public service will find a higher position than that of the party-defending audiences. The professionalisation of public service will be a logical reset button to press as the country looks beyond the post-liberation euphoria and embraces a South Africa that belongs to all mandates in the preamble of the Constitution.

 

Given the rhetoric which preceded the elections, especially the anything but ANC, the coalition government battle dynamics will have no defined South African cause outside the liberation promise in the Constitution. When the opposition complex mobilised for a majority of minorities and the reintroduction, in practice, of the unresolved federalism debate at CODESA, the governing party focused on consolidating the power of an otherwise disintegrating one dominant multiparty democratic order. As the opposition complex constructed a network of civil society fortifications to disentangle the bond between the governing party and its loyal and voting-averse support base, leadership integrity challenges of the governing party compromised its ability to consolidate state power commensurate with its national democratic revolution ideals. 

 

The rush to legislate for managing political matters with the law will be exposed as coalition politics undo the one dominant party-influenced policy architecture. In the absence of a vibrant and unencumbered constitution-defending civil society entity, constitutional delinquency, manifest in laws that encroached on the distinct character of spheres of government and the managerial discretionary rights and obligations of the public service bureaucracy, survived the actual test of congruence with what the constitutional order provides. Attempts at legislating a single public service or public sector, as the new nomenclature goes, will be upended to allow the true intents of subsidiarity and decentralisation the constitutional order is by design about.

 

The dialogue former President Mbeki advocates will be incomplete if it is not pronounced in the sub-contextual unitary-federal debate. With the surge of regional rigidities and identity political mobilisation, the new relationships and relations between and amongst spheres of government, and the rapid integration of the RSA political economy into the global economic order, the instability of the democratic order will continue to worsen until it reaches the tipping point. The battle for the post-liberation trough in the past thirty years allowed, if not facilitated, the capture of the intellectual discourse to shape the democratic order to withstand conditions the 2024 national elections have created.

 

It is also true that the anti-apartheid complex of democrats would have known that trying to teach a system built on subverting the will of the people, apartheid, would be like attempting to counteract years of indoctrination, system-sustaining training and own affairs or ethnic self-awareness. Fortunately or otherwise, coalition arrangements are a breeding ground for the resuscitation of lost causes as much as they are an opportunity to become laboratories within which society can experiment with what works for them.

 

Former President Thabo Mbeki characterises coalitions as a political product; the question is, what was the intercourse to arrive where we are, and what is the genetic makeup of the product and, thus, the coalitions emerging from that place? In democracies where coalitions work, national interest pursuit is the dominant substrate guiding all interests. The dialogue Mbeki advocates must settle the national interest debate selfishly. Except for the political template that shifted during the 2024 national elections, in South Africa, ‘tomorrow is another country’, our yesterdays will never come back. Cut!!

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