This was published in TimeLive 16 October 2024
As the reality of the last term of Ramaphosa starts to sink within the ranks of the ANC, the Gauteng posture on the GNU may be seen as the firing of the starting gun to mark the beginning of a race towards 16 December 2027. After an embarrassing 40% performance in the 2024 elections, including the hung metropolitan municipalities, the Gauteng chapter of the ANC has had to respond. It now turns out that the Gauteng standoff with the national GNU arrangements is a touched domino the ANC-DA confidence-in-supply agreement dared not to see.
Opposition to a
coalition with the DA as an anchor partner would have always been inevitable in
the ANC-led Gauteng under Panyaza Lesufi. The tense skirmishes, particularly on
the school's integration policies, have created an irreparable schism.
There is also the character of the Gauteng PEC, most of whom were part of
Malema as ANCYL President. It would be odd for critical members of that generation
not to be antagonistic towards the current configuration of the GNU despite
supporting the GNU idea.
The political power
interests of the Gauteng ANC chapter, acutely in local government, call for
coalition arrangements that project a profoundly anti-DA and pro-patriotic
front posture. The brute truth is that the EFF and MK Party existential threat
is more pronounced in Gauteng and KZN than in any other province. Therefore,
ascension to regional and provincial leadership of the ANC in KZN and Gauteng
will, for the foreseeable future, be linked to anti-previous establishment
rhetoric and posture as political capital.
The calculated stance of
translating the GNU statement of intent to suit the uniquely Gauteng political
conditions has made the province the axis of a different renewal approach
and process. The politically stranded components of the ANC-led liberation
movement are being reawakened to the new renewal movement that refuses to 'kill
the proverbial Chris Hani again'. The idea of a patriotic class-based
alliance or front is now firmly at the centre of how the GNU, or national unity, is defined.
Riven by ideological
divisions and rattled by the outcome of the May 2024 elections, the
ANC-as-liberation movement alliance has exercised restraint regarding the GNU,
which survives at the behest of towing the party line or the ANC's loosely
applied democratic centralism. Its political party character is flirting with
current arrangements for various reasons, some of which might not be in the
purview of 'we the people'. The generational shift within the ANC and the
gained the upper hand by the 'economic freedom in our lifetime' ANCYL cohort, a
group advocating for radical economic transformation in most provinces, is not
only questioning the progressively timid older generation but decisively
putting its generational mission as the agenda for any future coalition or political
program.
With Ramaphosa's
leadership term ending, the outcome of the succession battle could bring about
significant change. The rise of the 'next-ANC' generation, with their economic
freedom agenda in our lifetime, could be a beacon of hope for the future of South
African politics.
The economic
establishment, which has hedged most of its bets on the old guard, is at risk
of losing its grip on the fragile political economy of South Africa. Even if
the persuasive force of ANC elders were to prevail via the mooted National
Dialogue facility, the stubborn templates of economic domination and the time
on the side of the younger generation are sufficient to power a new social
revolution. The arc of ANC leadership is bending towards a radicalised call for
economic transformation. The ANC will be less moderate when the leadership
changes in 2027.
The Gauteng urban
machinery has always been the backbone of the ANC's change trajectories. Its
proximity over seemingly every facet of the country's economic, security,
cultural, social, and political spheres has made it hegemonic to what
ultimately happens in South Africa. Gauteng hosts the national government and,
by default, the state's bureaucracy. It is home to the eyes and ears of the
world about South Africa. If Gauteng launches a succession battle for
the ANC Presidency, only the numerical prowess of KZN, EC, and Limpopo can
scupper the project.
The Lesufi-Mbalula standoff is a proxy for a bigger successor to Ramaphosa's battle by any standard or measure. The most unmistakable sign is the 'ditlogile' (those in the race have left the starting line). This will inarguably tone the upcoming elective regional conferences. Besides the contests for leadership of the ANC and, by default, the country, the liberation movement has been sitting on a surface plastered over some of its deepest cracks. Opening up these cracks will be a feature of the succession battle.
As the succession battle gets hotter when regional elective conferences begin, daggers will be drawn as new national slates start narrowing the list of national contestants. Convention and momentum favour the ANC Deputy President, save for the strategic risk the SG has recently been postured to be. The regional rotation dynamics, which might throw Gauteng-based would-be suitors to the throne after Paul Mashatile, might dangerously split the Gauteng vote. It looks like the early days, but the battle begins on day 1 of every term in the ANC. CUT!!!
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