The succession battle within the ANC carries significant potential risks.

For over a century, the ANC has been the central force in South African politics, a dominance that extended to thirty years of government control following the 1994 non-racial elections. Despite a few political parties challenging their absolute power, the ANC remained the nexus of political influence. However, its internal succession battles have been a primary cause of its divisions since unbanning.

 

Running the RSA democratic order requires significant and sophisticated competencies. The political economy, despite being under the firm control of the minority, prefers to deal with tried-and-tested political leadership. The economic system, which relies on the predictability, sustainability, and certainty of the political system, the rule of order, and the country’s fiscal framework, holds the democratic order together. 

 

Until the leadership succession challenges within the ANC started to produce new and, to a large extent, comparatively unusual breeds of leadership, the human element in the leadership firmament was held together by the systems the constitutional order had put in place. These 'strange breeds of leadership' refer to individuals who may not have been part of the traditional power structures within the ANC, but who have emerged as potential leaders due to the changing dynamics of the party. A democracy can only be legitimised by free, fair, and regular elections.

 

For thirty years, exactly, leading the ANC instead of the government became the prize of good politics in South Africa. As the ultimate node of political influence, the ANC attracted all the human vices that went with political power, and corruption and state capture became the poison that won the contest, even if a significant amount of good leadership existed. 

 

The battle for the soul of the ANC, fought on the terrain of normative state building, characterised by the rule of law, and a terrain of arbitrary and prerogative state building, characterised by attacks on the rule of law, became a proxy battle for good versus bad governance. The leadership which the democratic order attracted became the single most significant threat to its continued stability and ultimate sustainability. The size and reach of social and political capital the ANC commands in RSA politics have made it too big to fail, an entity without which the overall capability of the state to contain latent discontent about inequality is compromised. 

 

The reconfiguration of absolute power following the May 2024 elections introduced a new phenomenon in South African politics: coalition governments. The executive authority of the Republic is now a shared reality, marking a significant shift in the political landscape and a new factor in the determination of succession discourse. The President of RSA now serves at the pleasure of Parliament.

 

It is no longer a given that winning the ANC leadership contest only guarantees the ultimate prize of politics: government. Suppose the recent polls projecting the 2029 election outcome are accurate. In that case, winning the ANC internal succession battle is just one of the tickets to being part of a coalition that will govern.

 

The overwhelming perception that the ANC's woes originate from the leadership domain and, by default, its ethical quotient has elevated who it ultimately selects as its leader to be more important than how it does it. Its rich heritage of anchoring its leadership choices in the branches has been compromised by the disturbing reports of conference delegates' buying. A phenomenon confirmed by the sealing of who funded the 54th fiercely contested ANC elective conference. 

 

The reality is that the ANC cannot outrun the societal perceptions about its technical skills and ethical leadership quotient. Its survival will be a function of the quality of the leadership it puts forward to help society see it in a better light. This act will lower its vulnerability and ultimately enable it to recover from its battering in May 2024. More than whatever facade it presents to society, it is the habits of its touchpoints with society's leadership that aggregate into the lived experience of what it values, which serve as criteria to evaluate whether it deserves the votes of society. Those to whom it assigns the leadership function will be its saving grace. It should not be assumed that acting on values is a cost that many aspiring to lead the ANC are not willing to incur in terms of political capital accumulation. Unethical emissions are a fundamental political climate change matter. 

As things stand, the ANC can only do its best with what it knows, rather than what it has. Politics is a game of familiarity in the inner circle, and its ability to venture beyond what is known has generally dethroned most political movements. It will ultimately be up to those who raise their hands to ensure that the fortunes of the next elections are determined. We should focus on how ethical leadership promotes human rights, rather than the reverse. CUT!!